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Key to Victory in the 2008 election

Tightening polls (again) indicate that despite widespread despondency on the right, this electoral battle isn't over. The major tracking polls show Obama leading McCain by a margin of 4-6 points---- less than the 8 point lead which Jimmy Carter held over Rondald Reagan a mere nine days before the election of 1980-- and Reagan ended up winning in an historic landslide.
(The above is from a blog posting by Michael Medved .)
Medved goes on to write The key to victory is clear:

If the election ends up as a referendum on George W. Bush, Obama wins (in a landslide).

If the election ends up as a referendum on John McCain, Obama wins decisively.

If, on the other hand, the election is all about Obama -- if it ends up as a referendum on his policies, personality and preparation- then McCain will win.
(I believe Medved is right. Read his  blog  Key to Victory.)
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